not really very Tropical Storm Nestor (AL162019) SaturdayUpdate

As NHC notes in their forecast discussion this morning, Nestor really isn’t very tropical.  As I’ve been saying all along, structurally it’s more like a nor’easter.  While it is raining heavily across Florida this morning, there is very little convection or thunderstorm activity, mostly off the Atlantic shore over the Gulf Stream.  There do seem to be a lot of storm tracks with rotation in them.  Here is the 7:22am composite radar, long with a neat product from the “Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor” or MRMS system, low level rotation tracks …  those “streaks” in the map or the right are storm tracks where there is rotation, or potential tornadic activity.  That is probably the biggest threat from not-really-tropical Storm Nestor.Same map with the watch boundaries … as always, click to embiggen and see detail!

Expect tornado watches to expand north into Georgia and probably South Carolina later today, so keep your weather radio handy.  Finally, here is the forecast rain and surface pressure from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model for 5pm this afternoon …

So again, bottom line, rain, gusty (but not dangerously high) winds, potential for tornadoes.  Try not to travel if you don’t have to, but if you are going to a football game or something take extra time, and bring a raincoat (the umbrella will just blow away 😛 ).

 

Typhoon Soulik and Japan

Typhoon Soulik is headed for Japan, with landfall early next week.  Here are two satellite images, one from last night and one from this morning.  The night-time shot is neat, the storm is being lit up by the waxing first quarter moon …

Night View of Soulik approaching Japan
12 hours later

The storm may still be fairly strong when it hits Kyushu in a few days.  It will be the second strong storm to hit Japan (third overall), but worse is all of the rain and flooding that has impacted the Islands this year.  Record rains, followed by record heat, have killed hundreds (over 300 at a minimum) and sent 22,000 to the hospital with heat related symptoms.  It’s been a tough year in Japan …