Not much change in this forecast (using the JTWC track and my Taru model). Lots of rain, which can cause mudslides and flooding given Japan’s steep topography.
The strong cyclone (hurricane,typhoon, different names for the same thing) Hudhud is making landfall near Visakhapatnam today. Not much change in the forecast since yesterday. The impacts are still predicted to be on the order of $5 Billion USD. Here is the latest forecast wind map using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast and my TARU model (click for larger version):
Japan is a fascinating place for many reasons, not the least of which is that it is at the crossroads of natural disasters. Typhoons, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, landslides, about the only thing Japan doesn’t get regularly are wildfires. The weakening typhoon Vongfong is expected to sweep over the islands over the next few days, and this morning an offshore quake rattled the northern islands:
The quake shouldn’t have caused any damage; the typhoon may cause a few hundred million USD in impacts, but dumping more rain on the Fukushima site is always unwelcome.
Cyclone Hudhud continues to intensify, and should make landfall on the east coast of India tomorrow as a Category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson scale. Here is the wind swath forecast using my TARU model and the JTWC forecast:
With the track shift and intensification, my Istanu model forecast impact has increased, now expected to be over $5 Billion USD. Given the differences in GDP and economies, that is the equivalent of about a $20 or $25 Billion dollar storm hitting the US (equivalent to something like Hurricane Ivan, that hit Florida in 2004). As with most storms, unfortunately the impacts are greatest on those at the lowest end of the income scale.
Storm surges of up to four meters (14ft) may be expected to the north of Visakhapatnam. On the current track high winds should avoid the major city of Hyderabad, but tropical storm force winds will extend inland for up to 500km. Impacts are forecast to be nearly $4 Billion USD.
Impact forecast at $1.5 to $2 Billion USD, not a huge event for Japan, but given fragile economic conditions unwelcome. The big research question is the impact on Fukushima, and how much trouble the rain and runoff will aggravate the radiation washout situation.
Currently just below typhoon/hurricane force, Cyclone Hudhud is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major storm, Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, before making landfall north of Visakhapatnam. Here is the predicted wind swath using my TARU model:
On this track/intensity, the forecast is for over $3 Billion USD in impacts on India.