Miami Herald: fear mongers. Again.

The Miami Herald just published a headline, “Tropical Storm Cristobal forms near Bahamas, may threaten Florida“.  Um, ok, if “may” means “is turning away from Florida and none of the reliable models shows it getting anywhere near Florida” or “it just took a sharp turn away from the US and isn’t likely to cause anything except rockin’ waves for the surfer dudes and dudettes”.   Here’s the latest computer model outputs; the orange square is the current (8 am) fix:
al04_tracks

Hurricane reporting has just gotten ridiculous.  The TV actors doing the weather practically soil themselves with excitement over every cloud in the ocean this time of year, and every storm “could” or “may” hit the US.  It’s unseemly.

Area in Bahamas will probably become Arthur tomorrow

Looks like the national hurricane center is getting ready to initiate advisories on this system, and we will probably have Arthur off the coast of Florida sometime tomorrow.  Here’s a visual band image and model tracks as the sun sets over the Atlantic . .  .
al91_30june_vis

Both of the main hurricane specific models (GFDL and HWRF) show Arthur becoming a hurricane, as does our in-house versions of WRF.  Here is NCEP’s HWRF track – if the storm does this it would cause around $100 Million in damage and around 2 Million people would experience tropical storm force winds or greater.  But remember: it’s only a model.
hwrf