Where does the time go?

Well, it’s a monotonic nondecreasing function, so the physicist in me says that’s a stupid question … but I am a bit chagrined to realize my last post was in February. My only excuse is I’ve been working on a very complex (and interesting) climate modeling project that I hope to report on here over the next few months as stuff gets written up and published.  Meanwhile, it is already the northern hemisphere hurricane season so here is a reminder: my automated system that runs the Haetta/TC model puts KML (google earth) outputs showing storm impacts (not just wind speeds, but “plain english” impacts like “trees down, some roof damage”) at this web site:


Hope to resume more frequent posts towards the end of this month …

Mind the gap … and California Wildfires

Generally, if you don’t see something here, it’s because there is no significant doom out there, but the last month there have been several disasters  around the world (couple of earthquakes and typhoons) that while I’ve worked professionally, I haven’t been able to post about.  As long time followers know, sometimes I get overwhelmed with work, not to mention family/personal stuff that people have to deal with from time to time, and while I try to do updates here for global events sometimes I just can’t get to it.   Hopefully things will get back to normal soon, but no guarantees!

One of the research things I’m working on are economic risk assessments for wildland fires.  Hopefully will be able to post a bit more on this soon, but meanwhile here is some data from the NASA and NOAA polar orbiters showing where the fires are in Southern California.  Each little flame symbol represents a roughly 374 square meter (1230 foot on a side) square patch of land that the infrared sensor indicates is on fire …

Pacific storms; light posting

Couple of storms in the Pacific, Maliksi will be zipping by Japan as a tropical storm over the next couple of days, shouldn’t be much of a problem for anyone aside from rain bands away from the core.  On the other side of the Pacific, Hurricane Aletta is away from land off the coast of Mexico.  The Atlantic should be quiet next week.

Posting will be light for a while as we regroup for the Atlantic and West Pacific seasons and do some software upgrades to better enable public access to the Earthquake and Volcano hazards data, as well as improved Tropical Cyclone graphics. Yes.  That is what we are doing.

OK, we admit it, we’re taking time off for the World Cup …

Cats and Supercomputers

There is probably a reason most facilities that host Beowulf class cluster computers or supercomputers don’t also host cats.  One week of cat hair, especially during the Spring Shed, can be a real problem … also, vacuuming out the fan intakes can cause fan speed changes that sets off all kinds of interesting and entertaining alarms.

While keeping an eye on Kilauea and other geophysical hazards, tropics are quiet at the moment although some potential areas in the West Pacific …

Alberto remnants from GOES-East

Very pretty swirl of clouds – not so pretty flooding in Central Alabama (parts of which are under a “Flash Flood Emergency” warning), North Carolina, and there is still a lot tropical moisture being pulled up into the rest of the South East … click to embiggen.

Admin note: also testing to see what it takes to get FB and Twitter to embed images … yes, I can write climate models from scratch and solve diffy-q’s in my head, but social media is still a pain sometimes!

Alberto Update

As of 11am today (Saturday 26 May) “Subtropical Storm” Alberto is still pretty disorganized. There is no real center, certainly the satellite presentation isn’t much, although there are indications of a center trying to form between Cuba and Yucatan. Here’s the current (11:00am) satellite view:

I think the main reason NHC is even tracking it is that it is a holiday weekend, and they want to make sure folks are paying attention in case it really spins up into a real storm.  Tropical Storm watches are now up for the west coast of Florida. Note the subtle shift in the forecast track, it may shift further east (towards Florida) later today. The main risk from the storm is heavy rains across Florida and the Southeast, which have been drenched over the last week from a moist tropical air mass.  There may also be coastal flooding, and rip currents across both Florida and the GA/SC coasts. Here is the latest NHC forecast map, with the damage swatch from my new Svarog/Perun hazard model:

Admin note: Sorry it took a while to post this, it is an experiment with a new integrated social media approach, which is a fancy way of saying I’m only posting on my blog, and it is echoing to Facebook and Twitter. The main reason is to try to reduce my work load during real time events.  Does it work? No so far, I’ve spent all Saturday morning working on it 😛