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Scientist. Pilot. Formerly worked for the Government.

Hawaii, Bermuda in the path of hurricanes

Hurricane Gonzalo continues to intensify in the Atlantic, and is still forecast to track very close to Bermuda as a category three hurricane:
f this forecast holds up, it could cause as much damage as Fabian in 2003.

In the Pacific, Hawai’i is in the forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana.  Ana should become a hurricane today, and on the current forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (run through my Taru model) it looks like this:

This track could easily cause several hundred million in damage.

Hurricane Watch

Vongfong is moving offshore from Japan, continuing to decay.  It caused some damage, a few fatalities.   India continues to assess the damage and start the recovery process from Hudhud.  My Istanu damage estimated impacts of over $5 Billion USD from the storm.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the leeward islands as a tropical storm, causing some damage to Antigua, knocking out power and damaging roofs.    The current forecast is scary for Bermuda, with a direct hit in about three days as a Category 3 hurricane:


Busy tropics: Gonzalo, Hudhud, Vongfong, and Fay

Four active storms.  Hudhud hit India yesterday, and relief efforts are underway.  It is currently decaying as it moves inland over the subcontinent:
My Istanu model estimates between $5 and $6 Billion dollars in impacts.  Given the size of the Indian economy, that would be the equivalent of 2004’s Hurricane Ivan.  Of course, given the disparities in the Indian economy, and the fact that natural disasters disproportionately impact the lower ends of the economic and social scale, that comparison only goes so far.  Istanu estimates that 14 Million people experienced hurricane force winds, with almost four million experiencing Category 3 conditions (over 110 mph/176kph).  That will require a massive relief effort.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Vongfong is decaying over Japan, dumping rain but not much wind:

And tropical storm Gonzalo is headed towards the Caribbean.  While it is forecast to become a hurricane, that shouldn’t happen until after it passes over the islands, and should pass off to the east of Bermuda:

Tropical storm (formerly hurricane) Fay is out in the mid-Atlantic, having brushed Bermuda, knocking out power and causing some minor damage.

New storm in the Atlantic: Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed off the Leeward Islands, and is forecast to hit Puerto Rico as a hurricane in a couple of days (click for larger):


Damage likely to be in the hundreds of millions according to Istanu, assuming the NHC forecast track and intensity holds up.  Here’s the latest satellite image (4:30pm Sunday):



Hudhud making landfall today on India

The strong cyclone (hurricane,typhoon, different names for the same thing) Hudhud is making landfall near Visakhapatnam today. Not much change in the forecast since yesterday. The impacts are still predicted to be on the order of $5 Billion USD.  Here is the latest forecast wind map using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast and my TARU model (click for larger version):

Storm surges are still predicted to be over 4 meters just north of the center of landfall:

Earthquakes and Typhoons surround Japan

Japan is a fascinating place for many reasons, not the least of which is that it is at the crossroads of natural disasters.  Typhoons, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, landslides, about the only thing Japan doesn’t get regularly are wildfires.  The weakening typhoon Vongfong is expected to sweep over the islands over the next few days, and this morning an offshore quake rattled the northern islands:

The quake shouldn’t have caused any damage; the typhoon may cause a few hundred million USD in impacts, but dumping more rain on the Fukushima site is always unwelcome.

Hudhud strengthens, landfall on India tomorrow

Cyclone Hudhud continues to intensify, and should make landfall on the east coast of India tomorrow as a Category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson scale.  Here is the wind swath forecast using my TARU model and the JTWC forecast:

Storm surges are forecast to be over 4 meters (14ft), and due to a shift southward in the forecast track are now expected to peak at the coast in the vicinity of Visakhapatnam:

With the track shift and intensification, my Istanu model forecast impact has increased, now expected to be over $5 Billion USD.  Given the differences in GDP and economies, that is the equivalent of about a $20 or $25 Billion dollar storm hitting the US (equivalent to something like Hurricane Ivan, that hit Florida in 2004).  As with most storms, unfortunately the impacts are greatest on those at the lowest end of the income scale.