not really very Tropical Storm Nestor (AL162019) SaturdayUpdate

As NHC notes in their forecast discussion this morning, Nestor really isn’t very tropical.  As I’ve been saying all along, structurally it’s more like a nor’easter.  While it is raining heavily across Florida this morning, there is very little convection or thunderstorm activity, mostly off the Atlantic shore over the Gulf Stream.  There do seem to be a lot of storm tracks with rotation in them.  Here is the 7:22am composite radar, long with a neat product from the “Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor” or MRMS system, low level rotation tracks …  those “streaks” in the map or the right are storm tracks where there is rotation, or potential tornadic activity.  That is probably the biggest threat from not-really-tropical Storm Nestor.Same map with the watch boundaries … as always, click to embiggen and see detail!

Expect tornado watches to expand north into Georgia and probably South Carolina later today, so keep your weather radio handy.  Finally, here is the forecast rain and surface pressure from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model for 5pm this afternoon …

So again, bottom line, rain, gusty (but not dangerously high) winds, potential for tornadoes.  Try not to travel if you don’t have to, but if you are going to a football game or something take extra time, and bring a raincoat (the umbrella will just blow away 😛 ).


TTITG is now Tropical Storm Nestor (AL162019)

At the 2pm intermediate advisory NHC declared that The Thing In The Gulf (TTITG, aka Potential Tropical Cyclone 16) was tropical enough to be named Tropical Storm Nestor.  This doesn’t change anything about the potential impacts other than now that it is a named storm, your insurance deductible might have tripled or worse, depending on the details of your policy.  This is a perfect example of how unfair the present homeowners insurance system has become.  But that’s a rant for another day …


The Not-A-Tropical-Storm in the Gulf (AL162019), Friday mid-day update

Structurally TTITG isn’t a tropical storm yet, although with 50 knot winds (60mph) if it had a closed circulation it would be a healthy one.  Sort of looks like one too …

… and it will cause tropical-storm like damage across the Big Bend area of Florida and south Georgia.  Potential economic impacts jumped a bit with the higher winds speeds, up to nearly a Billion dollars, most of it indirect like canceled travel plans (grumble).

Here is the estimated impact swath based on the new (11am) forecast by NHC:

Bottom line hasn’t changed much: heavy rains, gusty winds, scattered power outages, just a wet messy day tonight and Saturday across North and Central Florida, extending in to Georgia and South Carolina Saturday.  For GA/SC, a bit more drift to the right (east) will keep the worst of it offshore, so those worried about Football in Athens and Columbia might get off a bit easier.  In short, inconvenient, hazardous to travel or be outside in the darker red areas, or south or east of the pink line on the above map, but not really dangerous except right on the Florida shoreline from maybe Clearwater around to the Pensacola area.

The Inconvenient Thing In The Gulf (AL162019): weekend mess for the Southeast US

The system in the Gulf is complex from a meteorological standpoint.  There are formal definitions for what is a tropical cyclone (basically, a low pressure system with closed circulation, warm core) or various kinds of extratropical cyclones like a nor’easter.  The primary difference between a tropical storm and a nor’easter is that nor’easters have a cold core, but there are structural differences resulting from the different environments they form and travel in.  Nature being nature, it doesn’t like our nice neat categories.  The Thing In The Gulf (TTITG) is one of these transitional forms.  It is warm core, but will likely have a broad, elongated wind field with the main impacts extending hundreds of miles to the east of the “center”.

Here is the current impact map from my Stribog model, based on the official forecast track:

It is likely that sometime today the circulation of TTITG will close (there are currently several “centers”), and NHC will classify it as a tropical storm as the winds are high enough to support that.  But behavior and structure wise, this thing is more like a warm rainy nor’easter.  It will likely have impacts in the hundreds of millions of dollars, but as insurance costs are likely to be minimal, you probably won’t hear much about that.

The bottom line is aside from very vulnerable locations that flood fairly often (you should know who you are by now; right on the coast, in areas that flash flood, and so forth), this isn’t a dangerous storm.  That said, there is some concern for tornadoes across North Florida/Georgia/SC Saturday, so keep your weather radio handy for alerts. Otherwise, as you can see from the map, most of FL, AL, GA, SC, and eastern NC will have winds and likely rain over the weekend.

I rarely get angry at storms, but this one has really annoyed me, as readers of this blog have probably figured out by now.  From an inconvenience standpoint this one has messed up my long established plans to go to a concert  in Tampa by some of my favorite musicians, Anneke van Giersbergen, Amorphis, and Delain.

Yeah, first world problems.  Lots of folks in The Bahamas don’t have houses right now …

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (AL162019): implications for Amorphis/Delain Concert

The National Hurricane Center has started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, and issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for parts of the Gulf Coast from just north of Tampa west to south of New Orleans.  It is expected to become a tropical storm overnight as it moves rapidly towards the Big Bend area of Florida.  Here is the 11am satellite view of the Gulf …

Normally this wouldn’t be a big deal, but Delain and Amorphis are on tour and will be in Tampa this Saturday.  The storm is projected to have a rather large wind field, with stormy conditions extending across much of north Florida and south Georgia as it makes landfall early Saturday morning. The watches and warnings are all north of Tampa itself. although the storm surge watch does extend to Clearwater (just north of St. Petersburg – the hot and sticky one, not the formal imperial capital).  The biggest concern is travel to Tampa and power outages from gusty winds that might disrupt the concert.  Here’s my Stribog model impact estimate based on the official NHC forecast …

Hopefully the storm will clear out by Saturday afternoon (of Florida that is; Georgia will probably still be getting lashed by winds and rain but who cares 😛 ).

Potential System in the Gulf (AL962019, Thursday Morning 17 Oct 2019)

The tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico that is threatening to ruin our weekend (that  we’ve been planning for six months, not that I’m resentful or anything) is slowly developing, and NHC now gives it a 80% chance of becoming a storm in the next 48 hours.  Here are the possible tracks, and intensity/wind forecast from the GFS model.  Note there is not an official forecast track at this time, and no watches or warnings.  While it is likely to remain a weak system, it could still disrupt travel across Florida for those making the pilgrimage to Tampa to see the Anneke, Amorphis, and Delain concert.  But … you can’t control the storm 🙁 .

Possible storm in Gulf – will it impact the #Delain #Amorphis Concert in Tampa Saturday?

Have been working on some complex computer issues the last few days, sorry didn’t get to comment more on the severe impacts of Hagibis on Japan, which were a bit worse than expected.  Not to minimize the impacts, but unlike the Bahamas (which still needs extensive help from Dorian) Japan is well equipped to deal with this.

As for current events, there is a system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has some potential to impact the Gulf Coast this weekend.  NHC gives it a 50% chance of spinning up in the next few days.  The big question is of course how it will impact the upcoming Anneke Van Giersbergen/Amorphis/Delain Concert this weekend in Tampa.   The storm by then should be inland over Georgia, but being a weak tropical system with an extensive displaced rain inflow it is possible that it could be stormy across Florida for those trekking across that nightmarish landscape of alligators, tourists, huge dancing rats, and screeching auto-tuned princesses to get to The Orpheum for the show.  Here is the GFS forecast for late Saturday afternoon …

If this holds up the worst should be past, but it will be a nerve wracking wait to see how strong this thing gets, and how fast it moves.  Other models have it moving slower

Here is a current (2pm Wednesday Afternoon) GOES East image … the white blob on the Pacific side is what is left of Potential Tropical Cyclone 17E, the spiral shape in the center is the potential (as yet no ID) storm.  The line of clouds to the north is the cold front that is passing through the Southeastern US today.

Subtropical Storm Melissa (Fri, 11 October)

Could be there is an Allman Brothers fan down at NHC and couldn’t resist making sure there was a storm named Melissa.  Either way, they have started advisories on the system off the coast of the Yankee provinces of the US.  It’s more like a nor’easter than a tropical system, although there is some convection so it’s sort of tropical.  Either way it is deteriorating quickly, headed offshore, and in 24 hours should be below advisory strength.

Swirl of clouds off the SEUS coast (AL922019)

There is a small swirl of clouds off the coast of the Southeastern US that has winds just below tropical storm strength.  If you’re curious, here is the track map and a satellite view … conditions are not really favorable for development, but it’s giving the nice folks in Miami something to do.

There is a blob of clouds out in the mid Atlantic that has been flirting with being organized.  Again, conditions are not really favorable, so anything that does develop would likely be short lived.  Tropical Cyclone Hagibis is headed towards Japan and may hit as a decaying hurricane in 3 or 4 days.

Lorenzo still on track for Éirinn! (Sunday morning 29 Sept update)

No matter how you say it, tropical systems do impact Europe, and it’s not as unusual as you might think.  Lorenzo (AL132019) is a bit weaker, and looks to be essentially an extratropical storm by the time it gets to the Ould Sod.   Here is this morning’s visual satellite view from GOES 16.  Still a pretty storm …

Here is the forecast swath map using my Stribog model (based as usual on the official NHC forecast):

On this track the storm will pass close to the Azores Tue/Wed, so folks there should prepare for tropical storm force winds.  Although still a bit far out to forecast, Ireland might see tropical storm conditions.  As for the (not so) United Kingdom, the extended forecast is for wind, rain, and general misery.  Just like every other day 😛 !  But seriously worth keeping an eye on later in the week.

There is also a tropical storm in near the coast of Mexico (Narda) that is dropping a lot of rain (maybe up to 15″) there, potentially causing landslides and flash floods.  In the West Pacific may become a hurricane later today, likely to brush China, then hit the other China, before making landfall in South Korea.