There is a lot of uncertainty in this, but NHC has started advisories because there are some readings indicating the system is already producing near tropical storm force winds … here is the forecast impact swath based on the 11am advisory.
Much more around the afternoon (5pm) forecast cycle … here is an exerpt from the NHC forecast discussion:
It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts. A subtropical ridge that extends westward from the central Atlantic is expected to be the dominant steering mechanism over the next several days, and the flow around this ridge should steer the low pressure area generally west-northwestward. However, the details in the track forecast could change depending on exactly where within elongated circulation the center forms. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico within the next 24-48 hours. After that time, a general west- northwestward heading should continue but as mentioned before, uncertainty exists as to how close the system tracks to Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. It should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more equatorward. Users should remember that the long-term average NHC track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi, respectively.