NHC now issuing advisories on Potential TC #9 (Tue 28 July)

There is a lot of uncertainty in this, but NHC has started advisories because there are some readings indicating the system is already producing near tropical storm force winds … here is the forecast impact swath based on the 11am advisory.

Much more around the afternoon (5pm) forecast cycle … here is an exerpt from the NHC  forecast discussion:

It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the
formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding 
both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts.  
A subtropical ridge that extends westward from the central Atlantic 
is expected to be the dominant steering mechanism over the next 
several days, and the flow around this ridge should steer the low 
pressure area generally west-northwestward.  However, the details in 
the track forecast could change depending on exactly where within 
elongated circulation the center forms.  Regardless of the exact 
track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to 
much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to 
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico 
within the next 24-48 hours.  After that time, a general west- 
northwestward heading should continue but as mentioned before, 
uncertainty exists as to how close the system tracks to  
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The NHC track forecast 
is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.  It 
should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more 
northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more 
equatorward.  Users should remember that the long-term average NHC 
track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi, 
respectively.

 

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