#Hurricane #Douglas, #Hanna, #Gonzalo, and that thing off of Africa

The TLDR is that Hanna is making landfall in Texas today.  May technically be a hurricane at that point but almost everywhere in the impact zone will experience tropical storm conditions.  Gonzalo is crossing the southern Windwards, but is barely even a storm at this point, with heavy rain the only threat.  Douglas is now aimed at Kaua’i as a hurricane – high surf (not the good kind), wind, rain are all in store – but a wobble puts Maui/Moloka’i/O’ahu in play.  There is a storm coming off of Africa that may spin up, or may do a Gonzalo and flare and fade.  Here’s the details and pictures …

Tropical Storm Hanna is making landfall in southern Texas today.  As always your best source for the official word are the NHC “Key Messages” products:  Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Gonzalo (en Español: Mensajes Claves).  With Hanna, as with Texas, while much is made of crossing the arbitrary threshold between a tropical storm and hurricane (74 mph, 64 knots maximum winds), it is important to remember that for any given storm, the hurricane force winds may cover only a small area – or, for some storms, a much broader area.  The amount of damage depends on lots of variables.  So focusing on the track is a bad idea.  Here is the damage swath with “plain English” impacts using my TAOS/TC model, based on the official NHC forecast track:

Hanna is looking a lot better organized on both Satellite and Radar.  Here’s what it looked like just before 8am ET this morning from the Corpus Christi WSR-88 NEXRAD radar … the left hand side is the reflectivity, the right hand side is the Doppler velocity.  If you embiggen and look carefully you can see the winds in the nascent eyewall are on the order of 65-70 knots.  HOWEVER: that at 10,000 feet (the further you get from the radar the higher up in the atmosphere you are looking because the radar beam is going straight – but the Earth is curved).  So the surface winds are lower.

A third of the world away, Douglas too looks to be a minimal hurricane as it impacts Hawai’i.  The track has shifted north a bit since yesterday.  Here’s the swath map:

In both cases economic impacts are expected to be under $100 Million USD.  Normally, especially for Hawai’i, they would be higher, but the extremely depressed tourist season means many businesses are already closed or reduced operations.  Damage is expected to be somewhat light as long as nothing breaks that shouldn’t and the forecast intensities hold true.

Gonzalo has faded to a minimal tropical storm, and unless a flash flood causes some damage, shouldn’t be so bad.  There is a system off the coast of Africa that some are talking about, currently with the Invest code AL92.  It’s way early to get excited about it – some of the models spin it up, many do not.  Here’s the available forecast tracks.  A lot of the GFS and ECMF ensemble runs dissipate the thing before it even gets started.  So don’t worry about it – plenty of other stuff to keep your BP and heart rate elevated these days …

2 thoughts on “#Hurricane #Douglas, #Hanna, #Gonzalo, and that thing off of Africa

  1. This is off the topic of this post, but wasn’t sure how to get a message to you.

    How much credibility do you give the newest stats on Covid infection rates here in the US?

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