The tracks and intensity estimates for Douglas still have it headed to the State of Hawaii, making “landfall” sometime Sunday. Here is an animation of the GOES West visual imagery (note Tropical Storm Hanna approaching the Texas coast in the upper right). Also notice the sun reflecting off of the ocean … click to embiggen.
Douglas is starting to weaken, but the big question now is how fast. It will probably be just below hurricane strength as it hits the islands. The worst of it looks to be centered on O’ahu, Moloka’i and Maui, but higher elevations on all of the island could see hurricane force winds. Rain, flash flooding, and mudslides are always a risk on the islands. Here is what CPHC has to say, and here’s my TAOS/TC impact map based on their forecast track:
Speaking of Hanna … NHC now forecasts it making landfall as a minimal hurricane (en Español: Mensajes Claves). I’m not sure I buy that – the impacts for most people will be tropical storm conditions. Here’s the impact map:
If the NHC forecast holds up, Hanna could top $200 Million, but I think it’s more likely that any high winds will be restricted to over water or right on shore. Rain and flash floods, and maybe coastal flooding on the immediate shoreline are the biggest risks. It looks like only voluntary evacuations are being ordered. Shelters are trying to do social distancing, but that’s always iffy. If you are in a sturdy structure and not in a place that floods regularly, best to stay put – but if at risk of flooding, or in a weaker structure like an unsecured mobile home, the virus is the least of your worries: find someplace safer.