Likely new tropical depression in Atlantic

It is increasingly likely that the tropical wave in the central Atlantic is getting enough organization for the National Hurricane Center to start advisories on it as a tropical depression this afternoon or overnight.  Here’s the mid-day satellite view …

Since there is no official track yet we have to sort the pasta and look at the raw forecast track models.  They are pretty tightly grouped, with the dynamic models agreeing on two key points: it’s going to move across the Caribbean, and it’s not likely to get all that strong.  Here’s the model tracks available as of around 11am this morning:

Conditions further west, over the Caribbean, are not very favorable, so it’s not likely to spin up into a serious threat.  Here’s the impact forecast based on the GFS Ensemble track … impacts are minimal, mostly rain and some wind:

There is also a blob of tropical moisture moving through the Florida Straits into the Gulf (in the upper left corner of the satellite image above).  It might spin up in the Gulf before it moves ashore over Louisiana in 4-5 days, but conditions are not great, so most likely just rain.  We also have Tropical Storm Douglas well off the West coast of Mexico.  Fish storm,  not likely to make it to Hawai’i, so nothing to worry about.

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