Cristobal makes landfall (Sun 7 June 2020)

Tropical “Storm” Cristobal should make landfall in a later today.  I put “storm” in quotes because it really is more like a broad sub-tropical cyclone or nor’easter than a traditional tropical storm.  The main impacts right now are over Florida, although an area of convection near the center is about to make landfall near New Orleans.  Here’s the 7:30am Infrared satellite image (click to embiggen) …

IR images show temperature.  In this case, the bright orange/reds are coldest cloud tops, below -60 Celsius.  That matters because for thunderstorms, the colder the cloud tops the more intense the storms.  For a real tropical storm, you can even estimate the wind speeds pretty well just from cloud top temperatures.

Here is the estimated impact swath, but the damage estimate in the interior is overblown.  The reason is that NHC, by their own admission, is overestimating the intensity of Cristobal.

It’s not likely this storm will cause much damage aside from some rain-induced flooding (storm surge should be minor), maybe a few trees down.  A tornado or two isn’t out of the question, but as of 8am the only warnings (aside from the general Tropical Storm Warning) are for flash floods east of Tallahassee.  Still, all that could reach $100 million here in the US, added to the $100 Million or more (due to mudslides and associated rain) in Central America.  Because this is a “named” storm, unfortunately catastrophe deductibles apply.  It isn’t fair, but it’s the system your elected state insurance commissioners (both D and R) created.  Maybe you ought to see about that come November …

Cristobal caused a fair amount of damage in Mexico and Guatemala.  In past years, damage to the PEMEX oil fields in the Bay of Campeche would have triggered spikes in oil and gas prices, along with breathless reports of shortages.  But Cristobal is barely even a blip in global oil/gas futures compared to all the other factors.  My how times change …

3 thoughts on “Cristobal makes landfall (Sun 7 June 2020)

Leave a Reply to Laura schuler Cancel reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.