Amphan and COVID19 Updates (Georgia Data again)

Tropics: Amphan is approaching landfall on the Indian/Bangladeshi border, unfortunately a bit stronger than forecast yesterday.  It is now on track to cause over $1 Billion in impacts in this impoverished region.  16 Million people are in the hurricane force wind swath, and 1.6 Million are at risk of severe storm surge and river flooding.  Arthur is no more, a cold front from Canada did him in.  Mynd you, møøse bites Kan be pretti nasti.

Pandemic: The Georgia numbers are contradictory.  If you want to be optimistic about the re-opening, you can look at the report that hospitalized COVID patients decreased from 1025 to 986, a decrease of 39.  Or, if you want to be pessimistic, you can look at the total reported hospitalizations, which increased from 6916 to 7027, or an increase of 111. Of course, these two metrics are measuring different things, but in a  system with reasonable reporting and time lags they would agree more closely.  How anybody can look at this data and say we know WTF is going on in this state is delusional.  Mortality rate, fraction tested, hospitalized ratios, etc. all are moving slowly, oscillating within the noise levels with no clear signal.  The jury is still out on the reopening.  Some have asked about county level data.  In my not so humble opinion, it’s just not worth bothering with.  It’s too noisy, and I don’t trust it.

Elsewhere, most states other than New Jersey (which is still in a growth curve) are in a slow growth curve.  Here’s the latest for several US States and the composite US (with and without NY/NJ):

In the rest of the world, Spain, Italy, and while lagging in time, the UK, are all coverging towards mortality rates of 5.5 to 6.5 deaths per 10,000 population.  France, Netherlands, and Sweden are headed to the 3.5 to 4.5 range.  Russia now seems to be following a track more like Sweden than Canada, and will likely end up in that same range.  Canada will like be around 2/10k.  The bottom tier of South Korea, Norway, Germany, and Denmark are in the 1.5/10k range or less.  For context, the H3N2 influenza outbreak of 2016 had a rate of just under 3 per 10,000.  As a whole, the US is on track for under 1.0 – but as seen in the above graph, it depends a lot on who you are (old/infirm vs. younger/fit) and where you live (NE vs rest of the country).  Here’s the world plot …

So what does this mean to you?  Same as it ever was.  Hygiene.  Keep your distance from people you don’t live with.  Masks if you can’t. Sgt. Apone rules: (nobody touch nothin’, don’t bunch up).  Hopefully things are on a good track.  But given the mess that is testing and data reporting, we just don’t know.  And that is an outrage.

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