Saturday 4 April Chart; New CDC guidelines

Here’s the updated mortality graph (click to embiggen!) and forecasts for those who are obsessing on the numbers.  Note I shifted the scale a bit as NY and Spain were too close to the top of the graph.  NY is on a bad trajectory, steeper (meaning more cases/deaths faster) than Spain due to later restrictions and bad manners, but hopefully to no greater of an end point mortality rate.  Speaking of Spain, it does seem more and more that they have “turned the corner.”  Italy is a mixed bag, the spreading in the south and reporting lags are pushing their “curve” higher, but it should trend downward over the next few days.

The forecast fits were adjusted to reflect the latest trends.  As for the rest of the US, Louisiana continues its upward trajectory, as are other states.  I don’t believe the Georgia or South Carolina numbers for a second.  There is a 10-14 day lag in reporting in Georgia, and problems in the private labs that have taken over much of the testing, so I suspect things are much worse than they seem from the reported mortality and “case” numbers.   There’s simply no way Georgia is doing as well as Washington State.

In a major change, CDC is now recommending that the general public wear cloth face coverings/masks when in public (remembering that you should still only go out in public for essential shopping and limit your interaction outside your household).  This change is due to the increasing realization that perhaps majority of people spreading the virus do not feel sick.  It’s important to realize that wearing a mask isn’t so much to protect you, although will provide some protection if properly worn.  At this point, it’s more about non-symptomatic people spreading the virus to others.  There is increasing evidence that most people hardly get sick from the SARS-COV-2 virus, and even the ones who do have it and spread it for some time before they realize they are sick.  Speaking of masks, if you wear one (and if you go out it is probably a good idea to do so), be sure to wear it properly, especially the putting on and  taking off process.  Don’t inadvertently spread the virus – notice that “hand hygiene” is such a critical part of the process!

One thought on “Saturday 4 April Chart; New CDC guidelines

  1. Thank you for these blogs, I read them all! Where can I read more about the evidence suggesting that there are likely more asymptomatic people than originally thought?

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