Possible storm in Gulf – will it impact the #Delain #Amorphis Concert in Tampa Saturday?

Have been working on some complex computer issues the last few days, sorry didn’t get to comment more on the severe impacts of Hagibis on Japan, which were a bit worse than expected.  Not to minimize the impacts, but unlike the Bahamas (which still needs extensive help from Dorian) Japan is well equipped to deal with this.

As for current events, there is a system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has some potential to impact the Gulf Coast this weekend.  NHC gives it a 50% chance of spinning up in the next few days.  The big question is of course how it will impact the upcoming Anneke Van Giersbergen/Amorphis/Delain Concert this weekend in Tampa.   The storm by then should be inland over Georgia, but being a weak tropical system with an extensive displaced rain inflow it is possible that it could be stormy across Florida for those trekking across that nightmarish landscape of alligators, tourists, huge dancing rats, and screeching auto-tuned princesses to get to The Orpheum for the show.  Here is the GFS forecast for late Saturday afternoon …

If this holds up the worst should be past, but it will be a nerve wracking wait to see how strong this thing gets, and how fast it moves.  Other models have it moving slower

Here is a current (2pm Wednesday Afternoon) GOES East image … the white blob on the Pacific side is what is left of Potential Tropical Cyclone 17E, the spiral shape in the center is the potential (as yet no ID) storm.  The line of clouds to the north is the cold front that is passing through the Southeastern US today.

Subtropical Storm Melissa (Fri, 11 October)

Could be there is an Allman Brothers fan down at NHC and couldn’t resist making sure there was a storm named Melissa.  Either way, they have started advisories on the system off the coast of the Yankee provinces of the US.  It’s more like a nor’easter than a tropical system, although there is some convection so it’s sort of tropical.  Either way it is deteriorating quickly, headed offshore, and in 24 hours should be below advisory strength.

Swirl of clouds off the SEUS coast (AL922019)

There is a small swirl of clouds off the coast of the Southeastern US that has winds just below tropical storm strength.  If you’re curious, here is the track map and a satellite view … conditions are not really favorable for development, but it’s giving the nice folks in Miami something to do.

There is a blob of clouds out in the mid Atlantic that has been flirting with being organized.  Again, conditions are not really favorable, so anything that does develop would likely be short lived.  Tropical Cyclone Hagibis is headed towards Japan and may hit as a decaying hurricane in 3 or 4 days.