Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (AL162019): implications for Amorphis/Delain Concert

The National Hurricane Center has started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, and issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for parts of the Gulf Coast from just north of Tampa west to south of New Orleans.  It is expected to become a tropical storm overnight as it moves rapidly towards the Big Bend area of Florida.  Here is the 11am satellite view of the Gulf …

Normally this wouldn’t be a big deal, but Delain and Amorphis are on tour and will be in Tampa this Saturday.  The storm is projected to have a rather large wind field, with stormy conditions extending across much of north Florida and south Georgia as it makes landfall early Saturday morning. The watches and warnings are all north of Tampa itself. although the storm surge watch does extend to Clearwater (just north of St. Petersburg – the hot and sticky one, not the formal imperial capital).  The biggest concern is travel to Tampa and power outages from gusty winds that might disrupt the concert.  Here’s my Stribog model impact estimate based on the official NHC forecast …

Hopefully the storm will clear out by Saturday afternoon (of Florida that is; Georgia will probably still be getting lashed by winds and rain but who cares 😛 ).

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