Sunday Storms (22 Sept 2019)

Here’s the view from GOES East mid-morning Sunday … four systems are visible (and labeled):

All are just tropical storms (or invest areas in the case of the blob off of Africa). Jerry is likely to brush by Bermuda as a tropical storm (didn’t Humberto just do that, albeit as as full blown hurricane?).  Karen is causing rain and gusty winds across the southern Windward islands, but is likely to bring tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  They are under a tropical storm watch, so take appropriate precautions.  After that the storm is projected to head due north, then stall out south of Bermuda, giving them another storm to worry about, and the SEUS something to chatter about until the track guidance resolves.  Mario is falling apart, and will likely be just a remnant in a few hours.  AL90 is forecast to become a storm later today or tomorrow, but it’s on the other side of the Atlantic right now and early tracking indicates it will turn northwards rather than do the scary “Cape Verde” storm route.

Here are the Stribog model impact maps for Jerry and Karen … the big fan-out increase in size by Jerry is more due to the fancy oblique projection rather than the storm really exploding in size.  But it does make a more dramatic picture 😛


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