Storm this weekend? (Thu, 12 Sept 2019)

The system being monitored as AL952019 is moving through The Bahamas today.  NHC gives it a high (80%) chance of development over the next few days. Here’s the available track primary track models early this morning.

The models mostly keep the storm below hurricane strength, and many don’t even bring it up to tropical storm intensity.  In any event will bring rain and perhaps some gusty winds to South and possibly Central Florida. I suspect it’s not helping the Dorian recovery efforts.  If it goes in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX), it might have a chance to spin up a some and threaten the eastern Gulf Coast*.  But that’s a next week thing, and not time to worry about that right now.  

So what’s the bottom line – when should you follow, and worry about, an “invest area”?  Short answer is you shouldn’t.  If it were an actual threat, NHC would start tracking it as a “subtropical system” and begin issuing advisories.  Note that as of 8am, NHC says they might start issuing advisories later today if development continues.  That’s when you should start paying attention.

* I’d say it could potentially impact East Mississippi, a dig at CNN, who mislabeled Alabama as Mississippi in some of their Dorian graphics, or Sharpieland, in reference for the US President’s art work which is major threat to national security or another example of fake media depending on your perspective, but folks don’t seem to have much of a sense of humor about this stuff any more.

4 thoughts on “Storm this weekend? (Thu, 12 Sept 2019)

    • Meh. Certainly possible. The biggest factor in the newer runs is that the center of the storm was repositioned by 90 miles northeast. With weak or forming systems, it’s really hard to know exactly where the center of circulation is (if there even is one). Models are super-sensitive at this stage to the initial position. After a big reposition, it always pays to wait at least one cycle to see what happens before getting excited. Actually, you should always wait at least one cycle after an apparent “shift” to see if it is a trend or a glitch …

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