Invest in The Bahamas now a “potential tropical cyclone nine” (AL092019)

NHC relocated the center earlier today, causing the tracks to jump around and giving the chattering class something to talk about, and as of 5pm has started official advisories and tracking. Remember that for weaker systems, often there isn’t a real “center of circulation” that the track models can latch on to.  Whenever there is a relocation (in this case over 90 miles), the models will often jump – best to wait for a cycle or two for them to settle down before getting excited (see a pattern here?).  Again, with hurricane/tropical cyclone tracking, watch the trends!  Here’s the official forecast track and impact estimate …

Note that the GFS takes the storm across Florida and into the Gulf.  That is still a very real possibility, given the yuge uncertainty in the tracks.  Either way it will spread more misery in The Bahamas, and cause wind and rain in Florida in areas still heavily drinking from the near-miss from Dorian.  Those in Florida should probably check in on the 11pm advisory and monitor what your local EMA’s are saying; those further north can wait until in the morning to panic.

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