Dorian, and Global Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Update (Friday Morning 6 Sept)

Dorian has made landfall in North Carolina overnight – well, at least the northern eyewall did  – and is now moving off into the North Atlantic.  Here’s the radar scan from Wilmington NC at landfall, and the current MRMS composite with various warnings overlaid:

It seems that like Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, the hurricane force winds are staying offshore, although NC is seeing high sustained tropical storm force winds. The biggest risk right now is flash flooding, as indicated by the red boxes above.  Heavy rain bands will continue to inundate NC and southern Virginia today as the storm moves away.

There are currently six active tropical cyclones/hurricanes in the world.  Aside from Dorian (AL052019), Gabrielle(AL082019) has been wandering in the mid Atlantic.  While it has deteriorated into a post-tropical system, it is expected to reform in the next few days.  There is also a system in the Cape Verde islands, being watched as AL942019, that has some potential to spin up into a tropical storm in 3-5 days.

In the East Pacific, Julliette (EP11) is in open water, while Akoni is well south of the islands of Hawai’i.

Finally, two tropical cyclones are threatening land in the West Pacific.  Faxai is forecast to hit Japan as a hurricane, and given the track is over Tokyo could cause a lot of damage and disruption (although Japan is well equipped to deal with these things), while LingLing is on track to hit the Koreas and may hit North Korea rather hard (and the PDRK isn’t equipped to deal with it) …

Thanks to everyone for the kind words about the Dorian commentary.  I hope it was helpful.  At this point, returning to less frequent posts concentrating on policy, research, as well as posts about other stuff I’m working on (including a long-delayed rant about the INF and other arms treaties 😛 ).

10 thoughts on “Dorian, and Global Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Update (Friday Morning 6 Sept)

  1. Again, we can’t thank you enough for your reasonable, no-hype tone. Your kind and responsible reporting has made all the difference in our stress management and clear thinking while we processed info over days. This is the beginning of a grateful (grateful!) beginning to a long and meaningful relationship.

    We appreciate and value your efforts!
    Kathy & Ken

  2. Thank you so much for your commentary on Dorian! Your blog was the ONLY one that I knew I could count on for the scientific and statistical facts without hype or sensationalism. Or, as I tell my friends and family, the only source of information that calms me instead of making me hyperventilate! Deeply grateful for your site!!

  3. Just wanted to thank you.
    I know you saved me money with timely information about the hurricane track….I also VERY much appreciated your reminders about the people who suffered the worst of it in the Bahamas. Your kindness in that is immeasurably appreciated.
    Patty

  4. Thank you so very much for your balanced reporting. As newcomers to the South we are trying to adapt to the new usual and have found your approach resoundingly stress-reducing!

  5. My heartfelt thanks to you for being such a calming site during Dorian. I live in Savannah and just had to stop listening to the Weather Channel and local forecasters. They seemed to try to “out doom” each other. I fear that their scare tactics may bring trouble in the future. People who evacuated just to come back to a few leaves, sticks and pine cones littering their lawns may be complacent when a big storm hits. You will definitely be my go-to site in the future.

  6. THANK YOU FOR ALL THE CORRECT UPDATES YOU INFORMED ME WITH.. I FOLLOWED YOU AND YOU ONLY AS TWC GIVES YOU SAME UPDATES AND KEEPS YOU CRAZY THANKS AGAIN I WILL CONTINUE TO GO TO YOUR SITE IN FUTURE THANKS AGAIN… GO DAWGS

  7. Thanks so much.. Believe me, your reach was vast! I was forwarding your blog to my Mom who was forwarding it everywhere. It reached the point that I was safest sticking with you because even NOAA was making me nervous much less “breaking news!” every five minutes on the tube. We lost power for about 11 hours and Mom did not; she called me on Thursday morning asking how to get your morning update since I couldn’t forward it over!! LOL… I know you always have work to do, but I hope you (and we) get a rest from tropical excitement. My heart goes out to the Bahamas..

  8. Have followed you for a few years. Started when I was stationed in Savannah and now in Japan. Grateful for the global reports and that I can still receive the benefit of your measured reporting.

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