Dorian Update Wednesday 4 Sep – rain

Dorian continues to brush the coast, with the majority of the damaging winds remaining just offshore Florida.  That trend is expected to continue until the storm reaching the mid South Carolina coast, where stronger winds may come onshore. The storm is being pretty well behaved with respect to motion.  Here’s the radar at just before 11am, with the 5am track (brown line).  As you can see, it didn’t deviate much (click to embiggen).

The 11am track didn’t change, so neither does the discussion from earlier today.  A key question for coastal georgia and the lowcountry at this point is rain.  Here are two models showing the expected rain distribution as the storm passes nearby:

There is a very sharp gradiant with respect to rain.  The NOAA/NWS forecasters at WPC are currently predicting between 4 and 6 inches along the Georgia coast, with 6 to 8 as you move in to the Lowcountry of SC.  From Charleston north it could reach the 10 to 15 inch range.  As for winds, in Georgia still expecting tropical storm force on the immediate coast, lesser (but still blustery) inland.

13 thoughts on “Dorian Update Wednesday 4 Sep – rain

  1. I know you are very busy, but the NHC keeps showing the “most likely arrival” later and later.

    Our closest tide station is Thunderbolt (HT at 1:45). With only 90 minutes to go it looks like this tide will be closer to normal.

    Is the worry now the late night HT tonight? Or is the storm surge shrinking as a worry as well? You update is focused on rain.

    Again, I know you are busy and for the past three years your work has been a great tool for me and my family. Thank you in advance for any thoughts.

    • I’m less worried about tonight. This afternoon’s tide was over a foot below predicted, and while the storm motion is slower, Dorian is now tracking about 20 miles further offshore than the NHC path. I think that movement in combination with the tide cycle means this evening’s max should be a foot or so below forecast as well.

  2. Thank you so much al of your hard work and willingness to share it with those of us here in Georgia. Your calm and rational approach is so appreciated and such a relief from the hysteria on the weather channels.

  3. It has been so great to be able to share this site with folks who are worried about what’s going on out here and it is factual not hyperbolic.

  4. Your observations are most objective and understandable. I your two black cats on your desk at the bottom of your reporting.

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