Dorian update 5pm Wednesday 4 September 2019

Dorian has been tracking to the right of the forecast path all afternoon, and the heavier rain bands have also been staying off of the Georgia shoreline.  Winds at the Georgia stations have all been below tropical storm force.  Here is the satellite and radar views at around 4:30pm … as always, click to embiggen.

From a forecast standpoint … not a lot changed with the 5pm NHC forecast, or in any advice or recommendations.

For Georgia and the Lowcountry of SC, we are still in for a blustery night. There is still the potential for some strong cells to come onshore, and everything is scarier in the dark (especially if the power goes out!).  There is some tornado risk, but that is probably more of an issue as the storm further north.   I think the flood risk is a bit less now for Chatham/Beaufort area, gauges are currently running about a foot below the forecasts from even this morning. That’s still above flood stage, so the “usual suspects” are still at risk of some flooding.  If you are in coastal Georgia or the Lowcountry, you might as well stay put at this point unless you are in a flood prone place or mobile home very close to the coast. Further north towards Charleston and above the flood and wind risk is higher.   The big question now is how the storm moves and turns towards the northeast, and if it manages to avoid a brush with the northern South Carolina and North Carolina/Outer Banks area.

6 thoughts on “Dorian update 5pm Wednesday 4 September 2019

  1. The NHC reports Dorian at longitude 79.8 W for the last 6 hours, yet continues to report it tracking NNW. What’s up with that?

    Thanks for all of your work

  2. It is almost 6 PM and all is fine. Just a light rain and no dark clouds. We are right on the Sound at the heel of HHP. So far so good.

  3. Thank you. I live in New Bern NC. Any info you can provide will be appreciated. Between the hype and everyone being trigger shy after Florence last a voice of reason is greatly appreciated.

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