Hurricane Dorian, Thursday Evening 29 August 2019 update

As the sun sets over the storm, Dorian is now well away from land, over the Atlantic east of The Bahamas (note you can click any of these images to to “embiggen”) …

The 5pm NHC forecast slowed down the approach a bit later in the forecast, and shifted slightly south, as has much of the dynamic guidance.  But that hasn’t changed the big picture; those are just minor tweaks:  we are looking at a potentially severe hurricane making landfall on the Central Florida coast in about 4 days.  Here’s the impact forecast from my Haetta/TC model, based on the Official NHC track and intensity estimate …

Nothing has really changed since this morning as to what all this means.  Some models are now showing a “hook” to the north after landfall, and at least one source was showing a very misleading upper-air (850mb) graphic from the GFS model showing the storm over coastal Georgia.  The surface winds in that case were a blistering 20 mph.

Will check in tomorrow morning …

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