Atlantic low: the saga of invest areas

Here we have yet another example as to why you shouldn’t get excited much about invest areas.  At one point yesterday NHC gave the system a 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days.  This morning?  Only 40%.  Here is the forecast model map as of 6am Tuesday:

And if you haven’t learned by now reading this blog, it’s also why you have to be careful with track models and not cherry-pick the scariest line.  Notice the lack of nice colored tracks?  That’s because the major models don’t spin it up and can’t track it very far.  Many of those gray curved longer lines are alternative scenarios where an artificial vortex was inserted into the model.  So the most likely scenario for this thing is that it will spread rain across the northern Islands, Puerto Rico, and Haiti, but not become an organized system.

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