Atlantic low, California Fires

The low pressure system NHC is watching continues to develop, and the odds of something spinning up later in the week (Tuesday -Thursday) are increasing.  Here is what it looks like as the sun rises on Monday morning (12 November) …

NHC now give it a 50% chance of formation in the next 48 hours (through Tuesday), and a 90% chance in the next 5 days, so they are increasingly sure it will do something later in the week.  The GFS lowtracker loses it, but the model has a low east of the Bahamas by Thursday, other models (such as the UK models) have it going into the Caribbean.  As usual, with a weak, non-system, just identifying a center, much less predicting where it will go, is difficult. We may have more later today, but check back late tomorrow or Wednesday for a better picture of what it will do.

The situation in California is much clearer, and pretty bad.  Weather the next few days is expected to be favorable for the fires to spread.  Using satellite data, it seems that impacts are on the order of $20 Billion dollars so far – in other words, comparable to the hurricanes this year (Florence and Michael).  Worse, there is over $100 Billion(!) of infrastructure within five  miles of the active fires, which are not as of yet contained (one big fire is only 15% contained).  So it may well get worse …

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