Florence 11am ET Update: No changes to official track, models shifting again …

For more detail on model tracks and why you shouldn’t focus on them, see my post from earlier today.  But if you need an example, let’s look at the changes over the last 6 hours in just one global model, the NCEP GFS model, in comparison to the official forecast track (which didn’t change):

The official track didn’t change very much.  Still looking at the same folks who should be evacuating by now, same watch and warning areas, same damage estimate (around $15 Billion).  Here’s the map:

So for people in southern South Carolina, and especially those in Georgia, I again say don’t eat poorly cooked pasta.  It will give you indigestion …

2 thoughts on “Florence 11am ET Update: No changes to official track, models shifting again …

  1. Thanks for the updates. All the ‘major news stations” …and now the weather channel talk about this….shift or loop back march to the south. Freaking people out. Everyone, just take a mental Valium…

  2. I really don’t need indigestion for a host of reasons.. I have a family member in Raleigh who usually checks on us and I was shamefacedly hoping that we could rest easy this time.Plus, I have a special needs son who is really at sea with power loss. To this day, he runs to the back of the house during rain after our two storm odyssey ( three if you count Hermine). But, as you said, we should stick to official sources and not court the need for (more) antacids… I’ll be semi-glad when the uncertainty stops and we know what will be.

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