Florence terrorizes east coast, Olivia threatens Hawai’i

Lots of stuff going on out there, but I have to feed the cats and go cook dinner so here’s the quick summary.  First, let’s not overlook the fact that Olivia is expected to pass over Hawai’i in about four days as a tropical storm … given all the rain there in recent weeks, not a great situation even if the winds aren’t that strong.  CPHC doesn’t have a lot of confidence in this forecast, it could well miss, but here’s the latest track if you want to take a look.  Will post more on Olivia tomorrow.

There are a bunch of storms in the Atlantic:

Finally, here’s the latest (4pm East Coast Time Saturday) track guidance for Florence.  The tracks are shifting north a bit, with GFS doing what can only be called a funky move off the coast of North Carolina in the long range forecast.  This map show the little hook in deep blue – after that, the model has Florence doing a full 360 loop offshore, spending nearly 4 days in the same general area before taking off to the north northeast.  That will cause a full blown meltdown of the news media and local emergency managers across the east coast!  I’m not sure I believe that simulation, especially that Florence would stay as strong and organized as the model indicates, because looping on it’s own wake isn’t healthy for a storm because it churns up cold water and chokes off it’s own energy supply.  On the other hand the Gulf Stream is constantly moving four billion cubic feet of warm water a second up that way, and storms have done loops like that in the past so maybe …

The European models are mixed, with tracks from North Florida to North Carolina. NHC has sort of split the difference, kept the official track about the same, and adopted a wait and see attitude, which is fine because there is still plenty of time to figure out who needs to be warned and get them out of harm’s way.  So what should you do about this?  As noted earlier, not really worth getting too excited (aside from checking your emergency supply of coffee, assuming you already have a good plan in place) until the storm we know more, which will be tomorrow afternoon or Monday morning.  Then we can start to see who needs to start seriously preparing.

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