Hurricane Florence – ok smart guys, where’s it gonna go?

Here’s the forecast track model plot as is available when the NHC forecasters are preparing the 5pm advisory, with a few models highlighted.  Their last forecast (at 11am) is in red …

Well?  Clock’s ticking … 😛

In all seriousness, tropical cyclone track forecasting is both a science and an art.  You can’t just “cherry pick” a model, especially just pluck one out because it happens to show the storm passing near your viewing area.  If NHC, who do this every day, and are arguably the best and most experienced at this, why not pay attention to what they are saying?  Yes, I sometimes have issues with their forecasts (especially intensity) on technical grounds, but the biggest problem I see with the current process is how raw NOAA and ECMRF data are (mis) used by the media, and how state and local politicians and some EMA’s screw up the process.  Five days is plenty of time to prepare for a storm if you’ve done your pre-season homework.  If you haven’t, check out the FEMA hurricane checklists.  It’s too late for insurance, but otherwise time to think about what you are going to do.  No need for drama, or hanging on every forecast, unless you just need the exercise.

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