Hurricane Lane 18Z forecast update for Hawai’i

The latest model runs shifted a bit closer to the Islands, and the turn away from Oahu isn’t forecast to happen as soon.  Here’s the latest forecast impact map …

I don’t envy CPHC on this one.  The models are showing a sharp left turn just before the storm reaches Oahu, and this seems reasonable, but the model guidance is uncertain.  The current best brings the center 30 miles closer to Honolulu than this morning, thus the damage estimate has increased from around the low millions of dollars to between 20 and 50 million.  Still not a huge impact, but a later turn and/or even a little less decay than shown could easily spike that into the hundreds of millions in impacts.  It should be noted that the CPHC forecast holds the intensity above hurricane strength longer than most of the models, but this is a dangerous storm, and a direct hit on the main Islands is not by any means out of the question, so caution is warranted …

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