This is why you don’t get excited about forecasts …

So TD#5 in the West Pacific, recall what the forecast looked looked like Saturday, now compare to today, when the forecast barely makes it to minimal tropical storm strength before a direct landfall on Hainan Island.  The main risk is probably rain …

Elsewhere, the system off the Central America coast is getting a better organized and will likely become a storm this week.  Kilauea continues to erupt, and is now joined by an eruption of Volcán de Fuego in Guatemala that has unfortunately killed at least 25. Here is a shot of the area from satellite this morning just before sunrise, you can actually see it among the city lights:

And how many somewhat active volcanoes are there in Guatemala?  A bunch – it’s part of the Pacific “Ring of Fire” …

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