Alberto slows down, further west, weaker; impact forecast now $800 Million

Alberto pulled some dry air into its circulation last night, and slowed down, so it is not making landfall early this morning.  It is also weaker than forecast.  Here’s a 6am satellite image with the RAP13 model pressure field.  This is using a wavelength of light known as the infrared water vapor band.  It lets us look at the amount of water in the air.  You can  see a band of blue and white wrapping around the storm, the moist air that is the “fuel” for a tropical system.  But you can also clearly see the orange/yellow dry air to the west, and a band of dry air that is “entrained” and wrapping around the east side …

The radar shows the same thing: although there were heavy rains overnight, it has stopped raining here in coastal Georgia …

The 5am National Hurricane Center forecast reflects these changes and now has landfall at late tonight, further west than yesterday evening’s forecast, and much weaker. So our damage forecast has dropped some, but not as much as you might think.  Most of the economic damage from Alberto has already been done, in the form of a disrupted Memorial Day weekend.  So the estimate of $1.1 Billion only dropped to $800 to $900 Billion – at least $600 Million of economic impact is already “locked in” even though the storm hasn’t even hit land yet!

Here’s the current (5am Monday morning) forecast and impact map …

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