Alberto Sunday Morning Update; Economic impact forecast $1.1 Billion

Alberto is starting to organize a bit, both on satellite and now radar.  Here’s some views from early Sunday morning (5-6am).  First, the infrared satellite, with the estimated surface pressure isobars based on the NCEP “RAP” model (which integrates data and does a short term forecast every hour) – you can click any image to see at full size …

Here is the radar composite view at 6:45am …

And finally here is the forecasted impacts from my Svarog/Perun model, using the 5am Official Forecast Track from the National Hurricane Center.  Also shown is the previous (11am) track – if you’ve been following this, notice they have shifted the forecast eastward again.  This isn’t so much because the “storm” is deliberately moving that way, but that the center has up till now been somewhat ill defined and keeps reforming.  As you can see on the radar and satellite image, the system is starting to organize a bit better and develop a more traditional tropical structure.  I expect it will lose the “subtropical” and moniker and become “tropical” late today.

If this track and forecast holds the main impacts from the storm will be rain over a very wide area including all of Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, as well as parts of adjacent states , but gusty winds and some shallow coastal flooding are likely along the immediate path was well. If you are in the path of the storm, take reasonable precautions, especially if in a low lying area that can flood, or a vulnerable structure like a mobile home.  If you include the costs of disrupted business, government preparations, and so forth, Alberto is shaping up to be a $1 Billion dollar storm.  That’s not a lot these days, and in perspective of the $16 Trillion overall US Economy, no big deal.  Not much consolation if it is your house that is flooded, or a tree falls on your car, but … to put it another way, Alberto likely to cost the equivalent of 48 days of potato chip sales 🙂

Economics Addendum:  It is highly unlikely this storm will have any substantive impact on oil and gas production in the Gulf.  It’s not that strong, it’s not traversing the main fields, so aside from some precautionary shut ins and tanker traffic delays, unless something breaks that shouldn’t Alberto won’t have any impact on energy prices other than giving traders a chance to play with the numbers a little.

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