Alberto Mid-day Sunday, 27 May

Not that much has changed with the 11am NHC forecast update, with landfall still showing over the Florida Panhandle on Monday Morning, with peak winds (offshore!) of 60mph; over land will be less.  Lots of rain over Florida, now moving in to far southern Georgia with more offshore.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter found the interior structure is improving, with a shallow warm core (a key element defining a tropical storm) now evident.  So the story is that flooding is the main risk from Alberto, some on the immediate coast, but mostly inland in flood prone areas that are already saturated.

With a broad wind field, hazardous storm surge is always a concern even far from the storm center.  Here is the animation from NCEP’s Extratropical Storm Surge model.  While it’s not really a “Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Model”, it will probably do a better job on this storm because Alberto will still more resemble an extratropical storm at landfall than a traditional tropical storm. Peak water levels in the Big Bend area of Florida could run over a meter (3.5ft) above normal.  Click to load, it’s sort of big so be patient.

Finally, here is an animation from GOES-East of sunrise over the storm.  Note the improved structure as clouds wrap around the center … click to embiggen/animate.

Economic loss estimate didn’t change much, still around $1.1 to $1.2 Billion.  And as noted, much of that will be “secondary” impacts rather than direct damage.  No substantive risk to the offshore Oil and Gas infrastructure, some temporary disruptions due to shut in production and tanker traffic being delayed, but nothing serious.

2 thoughts on “Alberto Mid-day Sunday, 27 May

  1. As someone who doesn’t have Facebook and really doesn’t like to use it very much, I am glad to see this format which is easier for me! You are really my common sense scientific source when I am faced with impending doom…

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