As the sun sets over the western Caribbean, Alberto is starting to develop a swirl of clouds, but still isn’t much more than a big “comma” with most of the clouds and rain many hundreds of miles from the center, which is located just off the tip of Cuba … this is (hopefully!) an animation of the storm from GOES-16 this afternoon that you can click to get high res:
As expected NHC continues to shift the forecast track eastward as the storm formation location has moved and the driving forces seem to be pushing it more that way. Here’s the 5pm EST track and impact forecast from my Svarog/Perun model, based on the official NHC forecast. While the landfall location hasn’t shifted much, they are showing the storm center shifting much closer to the west Florida coast. Since the worst impacts are normally on the east side of the storm, that means worse conditions over the state.
The main risk from Alberto no matter if it technically becomes a tropical storm or not, is rain and flooding. The Southeastern US is saturated from over a week of wet weather, and another 4-8 inches doesn’t really have anywhere to go. That said, saturated soils make it easier for trees to blow over, so that’s not so great either even if the winds are not that strong. Here’s the radar composite from just before 5pm …
I hope this new format works better for everyone It’s certainly much easier for me, and I think lets me put more stuff in (like the higher res animations) that FB just doesn’t seem to permit.