Typhoon Maysak

Typhoon Maysak  (WP042015) is a very powerful, 140kt/160mph/260kph storm, currently south of Guam.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast track has it headed towards the northern Philippines:

On this track it would make landfall with winds at around 95kts/180kph, and cause between $500 Million and a Billion dollars in damage.  Last year JTWC’s intensity forecasts were not so great.  The objective models, and the Japan Meteorological Agency Ensemble (pink line) forecasts also show the storm striking the northern Philippines:

The JMA Ensemble forecast has a  weaker storm, only 80 knots at landfall.  80 vs 95 may not seem as much, but an 80knot wind only has 70% of the energy of a 95 knot wind; big difference in damage.