WP01 (Mekkhala) Makes landfall on the Philippines; stronger than expected

Typhoon Mekkhala (WP012015) is making landfall on the Philippines as a minimal Typhoon.  The current forecast track/intensity, using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast and my Taru model, is below.  JTWC continues the trend last year of not doing a great job on intensity forecasts – Thursday the landfall intensity was only forecast as 50 knots, but the storm is significantly stronger today, at 70 knots.

wp01_fri

Estimated impacts are around $150 Million USD, although the misery will be out of proportion to that due to the ongoing recovery from last year’s storms.

Mekkhala has forced the Holy Father to cut short his papal visit, barely making it out ahead of the storm. Unfortunately, there was a fatality when some scaffolding near the stage collapsed, and an airplane carrying government officials overshot the runway and ended up in a ditch just after he left.  I’ll not comment on the theological implications of that.

Typhoon headed towards Philippines

We already have the first storm of the 2015 season, and it’s headed towards the same place many of the storms hit last year: the central and northern Philippines:
wp01_thu

Using the Joint Typhoon Center track, damage is forecast to be in the $40 Million range, with the storm peaking as a 50 knot tropical storm, and passing south of Manila as a minimal tropical storm.  All in all shouldn’t be too bad, but there are still a lot of people reeling from last year so this is not exactly a welcome system.