Gonzalo closes in on Bermuda

Gonzalo will pass over or very close to Bermuda today.  Here’s the visual band view as the sun rises this morning:
govis2

The forecast tracks are all tightly cluster with the peak winds passing directly over the island.  Here is the forecast wind swath, using the NHC forecast track and my Taru wind model:
gomph

Slight wobbles will matter a lot – and because wind damage is relative to the cube of the wind speed, even 10mph difference can mean a lot.  On this track we would expect 110 to 120mph winds over the islands.  That is almost identical to Hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Fabian caused over $300 Million USD in damage in 2003; we should expect at least as much from this storm unless we get a lucky wobble.

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