Gonzalo closes in on Bermuda

Gonzalo will pass over or very close to Bermuda today.  Here’s the visual band view as the sun rises this morning:

The forecast tracks are all tightly cluster with the peak winds passing directly over the island.  Here is the forecast wind swath, using the NHC forecast track and my Taru wind model:

Slight wobbles will matter a lot – and because wind damage is relative to the cube of the wind speed, even 10mph difference can mean a lot.  On this track we would expect 110 to 120mph winds over the islands.  That is almost identical to Hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Fabian caused over $300 Million USD in damage in 2003; we should expect at least as much from this storm unless we get a lucky wobble.

Hawaii, Bermuda in the path of hurricanes

Hurricane Gonzalo continues to intensify in the Atlantic, and is still forecast to track very close to Bermuda as a category three hurricane:
f this forecast holds up, it could cause as much damage as Fabian in 2003.

In the Pacific, Hawai’i is in the forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana.  Ana should become a hurricane today, and on the current forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (run through my Taru model) it looks like this:

This track could easily cause several hundred million in damage.

Hurricane Watch

Vongfong is moving offshore from Japan, continuing to decay.  It caused some damage, a few fatalities.   India continues to assess the damage and start the recovery process from Hudhud.  My Istanu damage estimated impacts of over $5 Billion USD from the storm.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the leeward islands as a tropical storm, causing some damage to Antigua, knocking out power and damaging roofs.    The current forecast is scary for Bermuda, with a direct hit in about three days as a Category 3 hurricane:


Busy tropics: Gonzalo, Hudhud, Vongfong, and Fay

Four active storms.  Hudhud hit India yesterday, and relief efforts are underway.  It is currently decaying as it moves inland over the subcontinent:
My Istanu model estimates between $5 and $6 Billion dollars in impacts.  Given the size of the Indian economy, that would be the equivalent of 2004’s Hurricane Ivan.  Of course, given the disparities in the Indian economy, and the fact that natural disasters disproportionately impact the lower ends of the economic and social scale, that comparison only goes so far.  Istanu estimates that 14 Million people experienced hurricane force winds, with almost four million experiencing Category 3 conditions (over 110 mph/176kph).  That will require a massive relief effort.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Vongfong is decaying over Japan, dumping rain but not much wind:

And tropical storm Gonzalo is headed towards the Caribbean.  While it is forecast to become a hurricane, that shouldn’t happen until after it passes over the islands, and should pass off to the east of Bermuda:

Tropical storm (formerly hurricane) Fay is out in the mid-Atlantic, having brushed Bermuda, knocking out power and causing some minor damage.

New storm in the Atlantic: Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed off the Leeward Islands, and is forecast to hit Puerto Rico as a hurricane in a couple of days (click for larger):


Damage likely to be in the hundreds of millions according to Istanu, assuming the NHC forecast track and intensity holds up.  Here’s the latest satellite image (4:30pm Sunday):



Hudhud making landfall today on India

The strong cyclone (hurricane,typhoon, different names for the same thing) Hudhud is making landfall near Visakhapatnam today. Not much change in the forecast since yesterday. The impacts are still predicted to be on the order of $5 Billion USD.  Here is the latest forecast wind map using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast and my TARU model (click for larger version):

Storm surges are still predicted to be over 4 meters just north of the center of landfall: