Update on Napa California EQ Estimates

After crunching the numbers a bit more the models seem to be settling down to a total impact number of around $4 Billion.  The big question many have is how much of that will be covered by insurance.  One modeling firm (EQECAT) is saying $0.5 to $1 Billion. My estimates for insured losses are now hovering in the $1.5 Billion range, but that includes more business interruption, tourism, and inventory impacts than I suspect EQECAT included.

So just how bad was this event?  Well, if it was your house or business that was damaged, pretty bad.  But from the perspective of the state of California, and even the SF Bay Area, this was not a major event.  If the $4 Billion impact number holds up, that is less than 1% of the GDP of the Bay Area, and only 0.2% of the GDP of the state as a whole, so while not minimizing the impact this had on the people harmed by the event, it is a local, rather than even a regional or national event from an economics perspective.

A few articles are surfacing that quote KAC such as Bloomberg Business News (shameless plug: KAC provides data to them so it’s a great subscription).  Did several other interviews today.

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