Ash pattern forecast from potential Bárðarbunga eruption

The Icelandic Met Office has detected a small lava eruption under the Dyngjujökull glacier.  If it melts through to the surface (it is under between 150 and 400 meters of ice), an eruption could spew steam and ash high enough to disrupt transatlantic and European air traffic.  If it blows in the next few hours (around Noon US time), here is a forecast of where the ash from an eruption might go over the next 48 hours:

I ran this forecast  using a modified version of the Advanced Research WRF model (ARW); the graphics were generated by the VAPOR package.  And, yes , there is an animation . . .



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