Rammasun dodges Manila; China, Vietnam next

Typhoon Rammasun (WP092014) passed south of Manila, and is now offshore headed towards Hainan Island, China, then northern Japan.  Here is the current wind swath generated by my TARU model, based on the JTWC model:
wp09_16jul

It looks like the total economic impact of the storm on the Philippines will be on the order of $7 Billion.  While the track of the storm has been fairly straightforward, the intensity forecast has been difficult, and as discussed earlier even small changes in intensity can cause large changes in damage. If the JTWC intensity forecast holds, the storm will cause about $2 Billion USD in impacts to China.  Unlike previous forecasts, this track is well north of Hanoi, and the impacts to Vietnam are likely to “only” be in the 100’s of Millions.

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