Rammasun: $8 Billion dollar storm for the Philippines?

The latest data indicates that Typhoon Rammasun (WP082014) continued to strengthen right up to (and maybe even a little after) landfall. The latest model runs indicate that in a few hours Manila will experience nearly 180 kph (110 mph) winds and a lot of rain.  That’s really bad news. Winds there are currently (at 3pm ET/19GMT) 23 knots gusting to 36.  If there is a bright side, the winds will be blowing the water away from the shorefront during the worst of the storm- the far side of Manila Bay may see 2 meter storm surges.  Impacts on the Philippines look to be severe.  Damages could be on the order of $7.8 Billion USD, and the long term GDP impact could be on the order of $6 Billion in lost revenues.  Not a pretty picture – this would make Rammasun the strongest storm to make a direct hit on Manila in at least 70 years (the good records go back to 1948).

The forecast track for this storm has been pretty good, but as noted in previous discussions, the intensity forecasts in the West Pacific have been pretty bad this year.  So looking ahead to the China/Vietnam landfalls is pretty risk at this point.

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