Typhoon Rammasun Update (14 Jul 21 Z)

The latest JTWC forecast has increased the winds over the Philippines, keeping the storm as hurricane strength as it passes over Manila:
wp08_14julpm

This means hurricane force winds over the Capital.  As noted in this morning’s analysis, these little wobbles and wind speed increases may not mean much from a forecast standpoint, but they mean a lot for damage.  On this track/intensity the impact on the Philippines would be around $1.6 Billion USD.  That would be the equivalent of a $20 Billion storm for the US – a major event.

Looking ahead, the storm is expected to regain any strength it lost of the PI before it hits the southern Guangdong Province and Hainan Island in China in about 4 days, with Hong Kong in the wind field and further potential impacts on northern Vietnam.  Given the uncertainty in track and, especially, intensity, impacts there are hard to say.

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