Typhoon Rammasun one day from Philippines

Typhoon Rammasun is about one day from landfall on the Philippines, and less than 36 hours from passing directly over the capital, Manila.  Here is the wind swath, using my TARU model, based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) track and intensity:

On this track, the storm is forecast to cause about $500 Million in impacts on the Philippines,  Given the difference in GDP and economies, this would be the equivalent of a $4 Billion storm for the US.  The HWRF objective model is forecasting a much stronger storm at landfall, along with higher winds over the Manila area.  On that track $1.6 Billion in impacts (an $18 Billion storm for the US) are forecast.  Here is the HWRF forecast swath:

Looking ahead, HWRF is also showing significant impacts on both China ($1.3 Billion in impacts) and, surprisingly, on Vietnam, with a direct hit on Hanoi causing over $2 Billion in impacts (the equiv. of a $25 Billion storm hitting the US).  The official (JTWC) forecast also shows landfall on both Hainan Island (China) and Vietnam, but with as a smaller and weaker storm.

Running the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast track through the ISTANU damage model generates impacts for the Philippines about one third lower impacts than the JTWC forecast.  JMA also does not strengthen the storm over the South China Sea as does JTWC or the HWRF model.

For whatever reason, the forecasts for both significant storms in the West Pacific this year have had consistent forecast tracks, but very different intensities (and therefore impacts), between objective models (like HWRF) and official forecasts (JMA, JTWC).

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