Neoguri Impact Forecast 7 July 11 GMT

Typhoon Neoguri is between 48 and 72 hours from landfall (depending on which forecast you want to believe), and has started to curve towards the north and Japan.  Normally at this point the potential impacts are becoming clearer, but in this case things are a bit tricky.  On the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast track, the storm will make landfall on Kyushu at 9Z on the 9th as a 100 knot (115 mph, 185 kph) storm.  That is Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson scale, and according to my ISTANU model track would generate about $20 Billion in damage:
wp08_jtwc_7jul_06z

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has the storm making landfall at the same location, albeit about 18 hours later (the 10th at 6Z) and significantly weaker (but still a major storm). The GFS and HWRF forecasts, take the storm up the west coast of Kyushu then along the shore of Honshu (the main island), while the JMA’s objective ensemble model criss-crosses the island.  These tracks generate less damage – from $2 to $10 Billion in impacts, and HWRF and the JMAE forecasts collapse the intensity significantly, HWRF below hurricane force before landfall.  Here are the track paths as of this morning US time:
wp08_tracks

My main research interest in this storm are the damaged reactors at Fukushima and the hundreds of storage tanks of contaminated water.  Will be posting a bit more on that this afternoon.

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