Neoguri: A Tale of Two Forecasts

Neoguri is about 3 days (72 hours) away from the island of Kyushu.   First, here is the Joint Typhoon Warning Center wind swath.  On this track and intensity it would cause about $30 Billion in damage:

Here is the Japan Meteorological Agency Ensemble forecast.  It makes landfall at the same location, albeit about 12 hours later, and significantly weaker – a 90 knot storm as opposed to JTWC’s 105 knots:

The estimate based on the JMAE track is “only” 3 Billion dollars -a factor of 10 difference!

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