Watching low off Florida

Conditions are starting to become more favorable for the system in the Bahamas,  AL912014 (see this post for what the ID codes mean), to become a tropical cyclone.  If it spins up as forecast it will be called Arthur.  NHC is saying 80% chance of this happening later this week, and by Thursday/Friday some of the models are now forecasting a minimal hurricane being just offshore the Georgia/South Carolina coast (or, in a couple cases, making landfall).  Here’s the spaghetti map.  The black line is the past track, the colored lines are the main computer track models.  Dark blue is GFS, purple is the older LBAR model, the cyan track is HWRF (which makes the storm a minimal hurricane), orange is a statistical model (based only on past storm tracks) called “CLIPER”.  The colored line skirting the GA coast is the BAMD (Deep Barotropic Advection Model), an older model, but for a weaker storm sometimes just as good as the more sophisticated models.


The models are a bit more aggressive at strengthening the storm this morning than yesterday, but it is unlikely the storm will reach the point of causing significant damage.  More likely it will be a nuisance for the holiday weekend.  Still, if you live in GA/SC/NC/VA, worth keeping an eye on.

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