Looks like the national hurricane center is getting ready to initiate advisories on this system, and we will probably have Arthur off the coast of Florida sometime tomorrow. Here’s a visual band image and model tracks as the sun sets over the Atlantic . . .
Both of the main hurricane specific models (GFDL and HWRF) show Arthur becoming a hurricane, as does our in-house versions of WRF. Here is NCEP’s HWRF track – if the storm does this it would cause around $100 Million in damage and around 2 Million people would experience tropical storm force winds or greater. But remember: it’s only a model.