Area in Bahamas will probably become Arthur tomorrow

Looks like the national hurricane center is getting ready to initiate advisories on this system, and we will probably have Arthur off the coast of Florida sometime tomorrow.  Here’s a visual band image and model tracks as the sun sets over the Atlantic . .  .
al91_30june_vis

Both of the main hurricane specific models (GFDL and HWRF) show Arthur becoming a hurricane, as does our in-house versions of WRF.  Here is NCEP’s HWRF track – if the storm does this it would cause around $100 Million in damage and around 2 Million people would experience tropical storm force winds or greater.  But remember: it’s only a model.
hwrf

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