Update on possible storm off SEUS (AL912014)

Here’s this morning’s track forecast map for the INVEST area off the coast of the southeast US coast, AL 912014 (see this post for a note on what the code names mean).  Most of the models show the storm drifting south before being caught up by another system and sent off into the Atlantic, but the Hurricane WRF model (HWRF) shows it drifting across Florida.


None of the dynamical models are impressed with this storm.  HWRF and GFDL both keep the thing below tropical storm force.  The statistical models take it up to a 60mph tropical storm, but they are pretty unreliable in this situation.  That said, storm intensity is by far the most difficult aspect to forecast, and none of the models are really good at forecasting storm formation.  NHC says a 40% chance of a tropical storm in the next 2 days, 70% in five days.  I’d put it less than that, but given how close it is to shore, probably worth keeping an eye on (but not worrying too much about; it’s unlikely to cause a lot of damage either way).

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