INVEST area off the coast of South Carolina

There is an “INVEST”, or potential tropical cyclone formation area, just off the coast of South Carolina. This one has the ID code “AL912014″. The way tropical cyclone identification works is that each storm is assigned a code of the form XXNNYYYY, where XX is the ocean basin, NN is the storm number, and YYYY is the year. For the Atlantic, XX is AL; for the east pacific (off Mexico) it is EP, CP is the Central Pacific (near Hawai’i), while WP is the West Pacific (past the date line).   INVEST areas are too weak to have names, and often they don’t spin up.  The numbers from 90 to 99 are reserved for these potential storms, and the numbers are recycled during the year so you will see AL91 again.

NHC is saying a “medium” chance of a storm forming in the next few days.  Here is what the initial track models area looking like, along with an Infrared Satellite image (from about 1pm Saturday 28 June).  The tracks are all over the place for now, although the system is expected to drift south over the next day or so.  The questions is, will it turn back towards the coast (the BAMD line in blue, below), or turn out to sea?  No way to tell at this stage.  Will post more as things develop (or not!).

al91_tracks al91_28june


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